“The likelihood of success in an appeal would be very low,” said Matthew L. Cantor, a partner in the law firm of Constantine Cannon in New York. He noted points in the judge’s order about the concentrated national market, the high barrier to entry for competitors, and the companies’ roles as direct competitors.
The deals were announced at a time when former President Barack Obama’s national healthcare reform law was fully in place and the four insurers were growing in the individual insurance market it established. The insurers said new costs, from higher taxes to investments in new Obamacare products, were driving their need for scale.
That landscape is less certain now. Aetna and Humana have cut back Obamacare enrollment for 2017 after losses, and President Donald Trump and fellow Republicans are weighing a “repeal and replace” path for Obamacare.
More deals may be in the offing, JPMorgan analyst Gary Taylor said in a research note. “Given Anthem and Cigna’s pursuit of Humana in 2015, we think new potential combinations could emerge.” He does not expect shares in either Anthem or Cigna to move given that investors had expected this ruling.
Cigna is entitled to receive from Anthem a $1.85 billion break-up fee if the deal fails to win regulatory approval, according to the merger agreement. The agreement also requires Cigna to have put forth its best effort on that front.
But Anthem and Cigna disagreed about the deal in court, Jackson wrote in her order, with Cigna refusing to sign off on Anthem’s interpretation of how the companies could garner savings.
Anthem is the largest member of the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association and operates BCBS plans in 14 states. It and said it could apply its discounts to Cigna members while Cigna said its collaborations with doctors would save money.
Pre-merger integration was stalled and incomplete, the judge said.